Quiet weather persists through Monday evening, after which a storm system moves through the region Tuesday morning through Wednesday.
Wintry precipitation is probable Tuesday morning, with some glazing possible due to freezing rain leading to some slick roadways, before transitioning to all rain by Tuesday afternoon and evening. There may be a transition back to snow on the backside of the system Wednesday morning before exiting to the east. At this time, snowfall totals look to be marginal, with at best a couple of inches of snow across far northwest Missouri.
High pressure will build in behind the frontal passage this evening with winds relaxing overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the upper teens to mid-20s early Monday morning. Chilly conditions will continue into Monday afternoon with highs only reaching the mid to upper 30s.
A mid to upper-level trough and accompanying surface low will approach the region on Tuesday before moving through the region on Wednesday, bringing with it widespread precipitation. Confidence is increasing in regards to the precipitation types and timing, with a wintry mix probable on Tuesday morning. Included within this wintry mix may be freezing rain, which could potentially lead to some slick roadways on Tuesday morning, especially on elevated roads and bridges. Precipitation will then transition to all rain by Tuesday afternoon as strong warm air will be ahead of the approaching surface low.
A transition back to snow is possible Wednesday morning into early afternoon behind the passing cold front as cold air pours back into the region, but it continues to appear that moisture will quickly diminish, limiting snowfall potential. All in all, not much in way of snow accumulations are expected for this event at this time, with at best a couple of inches of snow across far northwestern Missouri. Any lingering light snow showers or flurries should be moved off east of the region by Wednesday evening.
While the forecast could definitely change before the wintry weather arrives, as of Sunday morning, the weather forecast for north Missouri beginning on Tuesday looks like this:
Tuesday: Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 4 pm, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely between 4 pm and 5 pm, then rain or freezing rain likely after 5 pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Southeast wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half-inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Rain, possibly mixed with freezing rain, becoming all rain after 8 pm. Low around 30. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday: A chance of rain before 8 am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8 am and noon, then a chance of snow afternoon. Cloudy, with a high near 39. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.