The National Weather Service is tracking a cold front that will be pushing through eastern Kansas and western Missouri today, with chances of severe weather expected to be on the increase during the front's passage.
The morning hours should be relatively quiet, with scattered showers and possibly a few "non-severe" thunderstorms.
A line of STRONG to SEVERE thunderstorms is expected to form from mid-to-late afternoon over eastern Kansas and move eastward. A separate area of storms may form early this evening further east towards central Missouri.
Large hail will be the primary severe threat. Straight-line damaging winds are possible with the strongest storms. There is a minimal tornado risk in our area. However, a greater risk of tornadoes will be in a MODERATE risk area that extends from extreme south-central Iowa, through northwest Iowa, north-central Iowa, and into areas of central and south-central Minnesota.
Due to extensive morning cloud cover, there remains a question as to how well the atmosphere will destabilize. This will be the "key" in determining the extent and strength of any severe storms in the afternoon and early evening hours. The severe risk will likely diminish during the late evening hours. The main hazards appear to be large hail and damaging straight-line winds. In addition, there remains a very small risk for isolated tornadoes.